And no matter what, the plan to use Russian assets remains problematic, since the ISS would have a “shallower reentry,” NASA says, and sprinkle surviving debris over a larger-than-desired area. Still, NASA would retain significant control over where any of these extant shards might plop down. They’ll probably land in the ocean, just as the space agency has always hoped. Sure, the station would have died before its time, but the thing was getting old. Most likely, it will be fine.
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There is a plan to prevent such a strike—the Space Surveillance Network, a bevy of sensors that the military uses to track space debris. NASA monitors what’s unofficially known as the “pizza box,” a sort of no-fly zone around the ISS. When pieces of debris are predicted to enter the box—if there’s at least a 1 in 100,000 chance of collision—mission controllers order avoidance maneuvers, firing thrusters that move the ISS and dodge the trash. The technique has been used dozens of times since the first ISS module launched in 1998. But the system only tracks about 45,000 larger pieces, and all sensors have noise. Plus, risk thresholds can miss stuff, sometimes badly. In 2025, Chinese astronauts were briefly stranded at their station after debris hit their return vehicle.
Isaacman closed out the CBS interview by saying flight-tested hardware, a revitalized work force and a more Apollo-like management strategy are only part of the story.